Broader USD Quiet Ahead of US Thanksgiving. USDCAD Influenced By Options/Cross Sales. USDJPY Position Liquidation Continues.
Erik Bregar of Exchange Bank of Canada - InsideFutures.com - Wed Nov 22, 7:42AM CST
Summary
  • UPCOMING ECONOMIC DATA TODAY: US Oct Durable Goods (expected +0.4%) at 8:30amET. FOMC Minutes (from Nov 1st Fed meeting) at 2pm. TOMORROW: UK Q3 GDP at 4:30amET (+1.5% expected). ECB Minutes (from Oct 26th meeting) at 7amET. Canadian Sep Retail Sales at 8:30amET (+1.0% MoM expected).

  • CENTRAL BANK/POLITICAL SPEAK: Feds Yellen doesnt say much at NYU last night. Reiterates her feeling that the low inflation dynamic is not transitory. The UKs Chancellor Hammond is presenting the Autumn Budget to Parliament as we speak.

  • CME OPEN INTEREST CHANGES 11/21: AUD +2207, GBP -2048, CAD +844, EUR -5414, JPY -3457

  • US THANKGIVING ON THURSDAY


  • AUDUSD:The Aussie hasnt done much since the bounce higher yesterday on slightly hawkish (less dovish) comments from the RBAs Lowe. Resistance at 0.7600 proved formidable yesterday and it should remain so again today. Resistance now 0.7585, then 0.7600, then 0.7615-0.7625. Support 0.7540-50. While yesterdays bullish engulfing candle is still intact, AUDUSD still technically remains in a downtrend until 0.7625 breaks to the upside. Expect quiet activity for the rest of the week as US traders will be out on holiday and we have no Australian data points or speakers on tap.

  • USDCAD:It was a bit of a disappointing day for USDCAD bulls yesterday. The quick look above 1.2830 and the swift pullback (which we noted yesterday) was enough to deter buyers and the EURCAD and GBPCAD cross selling we mentioned picked up steam further. It also feels like yesterdays massive 1.2750 option expiry was a big influence, because the level acted as a magnet leading up to 10am (the NY cut) and then suddenly the market found a bid again. Technically speaking, yesterdays action was a bit negative, putting us back below levels we mentioned as support yesterday (those levels are now resistance again)...1.2770s, 1.2790s. The 1.2740-50s have been support so far in London trade. The next support level is 1.2710-20. The latest round of NAFTA talks concluded yesterday with no negative headlines but the major issues remain unresolved. We expect quiet range-bound trade for the remainder of the week and perhaps a little bit of volatility around Canadian Retail Sales tomorrow (because liquidity will be lighter than normal).

  • EURUSD:So the market held the 1.1720s yesterday, which was positive, but it hasnt done much since. Traders tried a rally in Europe but sellers come in at resistance in the 1.1760s (new upper bound of our downward sloping daily channel). See chart. Expect range bound, pre-holiday trade here as well unless the 1.1710 or 1.1775 gives way. EURGBP buying is trying to be a positive influence for the second day in a row here but it now has resistance to deal with at 0.8890-0.8900. EURJPY just cant seem to regain the 132s, which is an increasingly negative influence. EUR futures traders liquidated over 5k contracts yesterday while EUR option traders noted steady demand for upside calls. Its an all-around mix bag right now for EURUSD, hence the range trade.

  • GBPUSD: Very little has gone on with sterling over the last 24hrs, but traders now have a little bit to chew on as the UKs Hammond just announced weaker than expected growth forecasts for the UK in his budget. GBPUSD is off 30pts, but its nothing to write home about. Expect continued range-traded ahead. Support 1.3190-1.3200. Resistance 1.3285.

  • USDJPY: Position adjustment from overextended USD longs (JPY shorts) continues to be the dominant theme in USDJPY right now. Case in point yesterday with yet another purge at CME (open interest now down almost 20k contracts since the middle of last week). All this is occurring despite another record high close for US stocks and firmer US yields, which traditionally correlates to a higher USDJPY. Technically speaking, yesterdays failure to hold 112.50 level is negative. Support at 112 even is currently holding. Next support comes in at 111.70s. The market has proven this week that it wants to sell rallies (a feeling we have had ever since the Kuroda reversal on Nov 6th)

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Market Analysis Charts

AUD/USDChart
AUDUSD
USD/CAD Chart
USDCAD
EUR/USD Chart
EURUSD
GBP/USD Chart
GBPUSD
USD/JPY Chart
USDJPY

Charts: TWS Workstation


Erik Bregar - Trader
Exchange Bank of Canada
Toronto, Ontario
Email:erik.bregar@ebcfx.com
Phone:647-728-4918

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