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4/12/24 Commentary:

There is a 445 million bu. difference between the USDA/Conab Brazil corn forecasts while the USDA & Argentine exchanges are 5 million metric tons/200 million bu. apart. The USDA being on the high side in both cases. More important is the impact on exports and in the case of Argentina, history would suggest a 5 million metric tons smaller crop (50) would reduce its Mar-Aug exports 1 for 1, or 200 million bu. less than the market currently has penciled in. Could the U.S. pick up a 100 million bu. or more of this shortfall in JJA? Stay tuned.

CORN:

• U.S. corn export sales update: sales of 12.8 million bu. were a marketing year low, down 72% v. the 4-week avg. & well below the trade range of 30-51
  • this week’s total was also well below the 17.2 million bu. needed to reach annual USDA forecast
• Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cut its estimate of Argentina corn crop by another 2.0 million metric tons to 49.5 (USDA: 55.0 in latest Supply/Demand report)
  • BAGE cited the continued negative impact on corn yields of corn stunt disease caused by bacteria spread by leafhoppers
  • corn rated excellent/good: 19% v. 17% last week and 6% a year ago
  • nationwide corn harvest at 15.3%
• The Funds sold 8 K with USDA numbers being mostly a non-event

SOYBEANS:

• U.S. export sales: bean sales of 11.2 million bu. were up 57% from the prior week, down 3% vs. the 4-week avg. & below the midpoint of the trade range of 7-22
  • unshipped sales of beans are 132 million bu. down 35 million bu. (21%) v. last year
• Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its estimate of Argentina soybean crop by 1.5 million metric tons to 51.0 (USDA: 50.0 in latest Supply/Demand report)
  • BAGE noted hot and dry weather during pod set and pod fill led to smaller crop estimate
  • beans rated excellent/good: 31% v. 30% last week and 3% a year ago
  • nationwide harvest is 10.6% complete
• Funds sold 5 SB, 9 BO, bot 3 SM. May crush, -1 @ $.85/ bu

FINANCIALS:

Overseas markets mostly lower, U.S. going with the trend?

WALL STREET FUTURES - Mostly weaker:

Dow, +11; S&P, -9.5; NAS, -70

Asia - Mostly weaker:

Nikkei, +0.21%; Shanghai, -0.49%;

Hang Seng, -2.18%

EUROPE - Firmer:

DAX, +0.9%; FTSE, +1.27%; CAC +0.89%

June Gold: +$42.4 @2,415

May CRUDE: +$1.1 @$86.12

Jun U.S. Dollar Index: +0.601 @105.064

BONUS INFO FROM THE 4/11/24 USDA REPORT:

CONAB was the first to release their updated production estimates, lowering their corn and soy projections even further, which were already much below the latest USDA outlooks.

Beans:

• Production was lowered 336 thousand metric tons down to 146.522 million metric tons. This compares to the USDA March WASDE estimate of 155 million metric tons and last year’s production of 154.609 million metric tons. Brazilian soybean export projection was lowered very slightly (70 thousand metric tons) down to 92.259 million metric tons and compares to exports last year of 101.86 million metric tons. In the March WASDE, the USDA was projecting Brazilian soybean exports of 103 million metric tons. Ending stocks were lowered 2.68 MMT from the prior report.

Corn:

• Total corn production was lowered 1.789 million metric tons down to 110.964 million metric tons. This compares to the USDA March WASDE estimate of 124 MMT and last year’s production of 131.893 million metric tons). The first season corn crop is projected at 23.356 million metric tons compared to 23.413 million metric tons prior. The second season corn crop is projected at 85.617 million metric tons compared to 87.348 million metric tons prior and 102.365 million metric tons last year. They lowered their corn export forecast 1 million metric tons down to 31 million metric tons, which compares to exports last year of 54.30 million metric tons. In the March WASDE, the USDA was still projecting Brazilian corn exports of 52 million metric tons. Ending stocks were lowered 670 thousand metric tons from the prior report down to 5.586 million metric tons and compares to ending stocks this time last year of 11.47 million metric tons.

Wheat:

• Production was raised 141 thousand metric tons up to 9.729 million metric tons on slightly higher planted acres (3.309 mil hectares vs 3.264 mil prior) and slightly better yield (2.940 mt/ha vs 2.937 mt/ha prior). Last year production was 8.097 million metric tons. They left their import projection unchanged from prior at 5.500 million metric tons.