Been Thinking...

"Agriculture is our wisest pursuit, because it will in the end contribute most to real wealth, good morals, and happiness."

Thomas Jefferson

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Notes Delivery Start Delivery End Cash Price Price Change Basis

Quotes retrieved on February 20, 2020, 11:50:26 PM CST
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Outside Markets
Quotes retrieved on February 20, 2020, 11:50:26 PM CST
Wednesday Morning Comments

Morning Market Direction:  Corn down 1-2; Beans down 4.

Much of today's trade attention will center on data coming out of the Ag Outlook Forum in Washington DC. The most interest will be on the initial glimpse of the 2020/21 balance sheets, although data will be released on supply and demand for the next several years.

Above all, trade seems most interested in planted acres. For corn trade is expecting to see a USDA projection of 93.6 million acres compared to the 89.9 million planted a year ago. Soybean plantings are forecast to come out at 86 million, up from last year's 76.1 million. Wheat acres are anticipated to hold steady on the year at 45.2 million.

While these will be critical numbers as we transition from old crop to new crop for market focus, there are several other factors we need to watch as well, and these will all have a direct impact on balance sheets. 

  • Demand is obviously a key one with all interest on China and how the newly imposed Phase 1 will alter trade. Some analysts are quick to point out that China may not change their habits at all, especially with the US being above other sources on commodities at the present time.
  • Of course, the ongoing Coronavirus will determine demand as much as anything.
  • Spring weather will start to become more of a market factor once these estimates are released as they will impact actual plantings as much as anything else. It would not come as a surprise to see trade monitor the data that will be released today and tomorrow but wait for the Spring Planting Intentions report on March 31st before making any market changes. This is especially with weather conditions better known at that time.

Aside from the flush of data out of Washington today, we will continue to see attention on the developments with China and production data out of South America.

The market is currently starved for fresh news though, so we cannot rule out an adverse reaction to any headline, which is exactly what has happened all week.


Summary Items:

Ag Outlook forum today/tomorrow.

Most interested in acres, ending stocks; Demand as well.

Larger South American crops weighing on markets.


2019 Crop Insurance Prices

Corn - $4.00 Spring    

Beans - $9.54 Spring    


Managed Money Activity

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CME Futures Markets
Quotes retrieved on February 20, 2020, 11:50:26 PM CST
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