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3/19/2025

Grains and oilseeds are down slightly after trading even to slightly higher overnight.

• Russia's seaborne grain exports dropped by 52.3% year-on-year in February to 2.4 million metric tons, shipping data from industry sources showed on Wednesday. Russia, the world's top wheat exporter, shipped grain to global markets at a record pace in the first part of the 2024/25 marketing season, which began on July 1 last year, but a February export quota and bad weather at ports led to a sharp decline in exports. Total seaborne exports have reached nearly 37.7 million tons this season, which is 4.1% down compared with the previous year, according to the data. Over the whole 2024/2025 season Russia's grain exports will fall by one-fifth from the prior season's record to 55-57 million metric tons, after the harvest was hit by bad weather, according to the Agriculture Ministry.

• S&P Global Commodity Insights projected on Tuesday that U.S. farmers would plant 94.3 million acres of corn in 2025, up 800,000 acres from its previous forecast released on January 21 and up 3.7 million acres from 2024, an S&P Global spokesperson said. The firm left its forecast of U.S. 2025 soybean plantings unchanged from January at 83.3 million acres, down 3.8 million acres from a year ago. In 2024, U.S. farmers planted 90.6 million acres of corn and 87.1 million acres of soybeans, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

• The U.S. Department of Agriculture will on Wednesday begin accepting applications from farmers affected by low commodity prices for economic aid passed by Congress last year, an agency official said on Tuesday. The stop-gap government funding package passed by Congress last December included $10 billion for economic assistance, a supplement to existing farm subsidy programs that support U.S. crops. U.S. farmers are struggling with slumping prices that have made some crops more expensive to plant than sell, and are expected to plant more corn this year in a bid to eke out a profit.

• China has lifted a two-year ban on poultry imports from Argentina, reopening a key supply channel amid a tit-for-tat trade war with the United States that has led to steep tariffs on U.S poultry. Argentina suspended poultry exports in February 2023 after detecting Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in commercial poultry, prompting China to impose a ban in March of that year. Imports of poultry and related products from the South American producer will be allowed from March 17 following a risk analysis, the General Administration of Customs said in a statement dated March 17. It did not elaborate on the results of the risk analysis. Prior to the import ban, Argentina was China's third-largest supplier of chicken products, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data.

CORN:

• Ethanol grind at 9:30 am CDT. Grind last week was 1,062,000 barrels/day vs. 1,046,000 on this date last year. Ethanol stocks last week were 27.376 mil. and last year for this week were 26.009 mil.
• Consultant: Argentina 24/25 corn production estimate is unchanged this week at 46.0 MMT; neutral bias going forward with harvest at 8.1%
  
  • corn is rated 23% poor/very poor; 47% fair; and 30% good/excellent as of late last week; good/excellent is up 1% vs. the prior week—the 4th consecutive week that corn conditions have improved
• Ukraine exported 570 K MT of corn for the week ending March 16, 12% less than the previous week; cumulative 24/25 shipments are dn 10% v. last yr
• The Funds sold 6 K as Brazil should see better rains the next 2 weeks

SOYBEANS:

• The Nov 2025 bean/Dec 2025 corn futures price ratio was 2.24 as of Tuesday; one year ago, the Nov 2024 bean/Dec 2024 corn ratio was 2.50
• Consultant: Argentina 24/25 soybean crop est. is unchanged this week at 48.0 MMT; neutral bias going forward, with early harvest to start this week
  
  • beans are 61% filling pods, 12% maturing; heat and moisture stress in the north and localized flooding in the south—still, crop ratings for improved for the 4th consecutive week
• Huge Brazilian exports for the 2nd week of March (138 mbu); if the current pace holds, shipments for the month would post a record for any month
• Funds sold 3 SB, 5 SM, bot 3 BO. May Crush, -$.02 @ $1.15

MACRO:

• Stock futures are attempting to rebound ahead of Fed comments.
• Wall Street Futures - Cautiously optimistic:  Dow, +57; S&P, +14.75; NAS, +67
• Asia - Showing weakness:  Nikkei, -0.25%; Shanghai, +0.1%; Hang Seng, +0.12%
• EUROPE - Mixed:  DAX, +0.09%; FTSE, -0.06%; CAC +0.46%
• April Gold: +$3.3 @$3,044     May CRUDE: -0.28 @$66.47     Jun U.S. Dollar Index: +0.363 @102.892