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5/29/2025

Grains and oilseeds lower on good weather forecasts in the US.

• Dry and cold weather conditions expected in the coming days will help dry out Argentina's agricultural fields, allowing producers to intensify their delayed soybean harvest following repeated rains, the Buenos Aires and Rosario stock exchanges said on Wednesday.  Argentina is the world's largest exporter of soybean oil and meal, but heavy rainfall in key farming regions has stalled the oilseed harvest, raising concerns about potential yield losses.  The government estimates the 2024/25 soybean crop at 49 million metric tons.  The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BdeC) said there will be an influx of cold air that will lower temperatures, with possible frost in some production areas.  "These are expected cold conditions that could help further dry out the crop and improve conditions for the soybean harvest," Cristian Russo, head of agricultural estimates at the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR), told Reuters.  "After the rains, they could be a positive factor in recovering those fields and harvesting them," he added.

• India is likely to produce a record 117.5 million metric tons of wheat in the year ending June 2025, the farm ministry said, above its March forecast of 115.4 million tons, as higher prices prompted farmers to expand the area planted with high-yielding seed varieties.  India, the world's biggest wheat producer after China, produced 113.3 million tons of wheat in 2024, the farm ministry said in a statement issued late on Wednesday.  However, a leading industry body said the crop was nearly 6.25% lower than the government's estimate.  The country's rice production in 2025 is also set to climb to a record high, with the ministry estimating it at 149 million metric tons, up from last year's 137.8 million tons.

• Egypt, a top wheat importer, bought 3.64 million metric tons of wheat from local farmers so far this season, Ahmad Idam, head of the services sector at the ministry of agriculture, told Reuters on Thursday.  The procurement season officially started in mid-April.

• Malaysian palm oil futures extended gains for a fifth consecutive session on Thursday, as stronger palm olein and robust export demand supported the bullish sentiment in the market.  Crude palm oil futures traded higher on Dalian palm olein's strength and the recent export performance is seen as supporting market sentiment in the near term, said David Ng, a proprietary trader at Kuala Lumpur-based trading firm Iceberg X Sdn Bhd.

• Brazil confirmed its first outbreak of bird flu in a commercial flock on May 16. As of May 28, 41 countries have announced protocols for either a country, state, or region-wide trade ban.  Last week, poultry exports (mostly chicken meat) were down 1.7%, but are expected to be further affected in June, as several countries will likely ban poultry imports from Brazil for 60 days.  Brazil was the third-largest chicken meat producer in the world in 2024, and the largest exporter, with 35% market share, followed by the U.S. (22%).

CORN:

• Ethanol grind at 11:00 am CDT. Grind last week was 1,036,000 barrels/day vs. 1,068,000 on this date last year. Ethanol stocks last week were 24.944 million and last year for this week were 23.207 million
• Corn planted as of May 25 was 87% & the average increase from May 25- June 1 is ~8%; 5-year average for June 1 is ~93% and 2024 was ~90% 
• Corn emerged as of May 25 was 67% & the average increase from May 25-June 1 is ~17%; 5-year average for June 1 is ~77% and 2024 was ~72%
• Temperatures will be much cooler than normal on safrinha corn in south Brazil over the next week, including some frost Fri./Sat. as lows dip into the 30s-40s, but a killing event with temps of 28°F / -2°C or colder is not expected
• The Funds sold 8 K: Good weather forecast in the U.S.

SOYBEANS:

• July futures closed at $10.484 on Wed., lowest settlement since May 8
• Beans planted as of May 25 were 76% & the average increase from May 25- June 1 is ~12%; 5-year average for June 1 is ~80% and 2024 was ~77%
• Beans emerged as of May 25 were 50% & the average increase from May 25- June 1 is ~17%; 5-year average for June 1 is ~57% and 2024 was ~53%
• The new crop corn/soybean price ratio (SX25/CZ25) closed at 2.34 on Wednesday; last year, the SX4/CZ4 ratio traded at 2.50
• Dry weather is expected over the next one to two weeks for remaining soybean harvesting in Argentina
• Funds sold 6 K SB; 3 K SM; 6 K BO. July Crush, +$1.2 @ $1.359

MACRO:

• Court blocks Trump tariffs; Nvidia reported better than expected earnings.
• Wall Street Futures - Firmer:  Dow, +233; S&P, +47.25; NAS, +217
• Asia - Firmer:  Nikkei, +1.88%; Shanghai, +0.7%; Hang Seng, +1.35%
• EUROPE - Mixed:  DAX, +0.33%; FTSE, -0.07%; CAC +0.66%
• June Gold: +$0.4 @$3,295     June Crude Oil: +$0.56 @$62.40     June U.S. Dollar Index: +0.050 @99.785