Grains Report 02/11/19
Jack Scoville of The PRICE Futures Group - InsideFutures.com - Mon Feb 11, 12:41PM CST

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings
The following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report Friday and how the government’s estimates compared with analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2019-20 U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings Estimates
Friday’s USDA
Estimate Average Range 2018-19
All Winter Wheat 31.3 32.0 31.5 – 33.2 32.5
Hard Red Winter 22.2 22.5 21.9 – 23.6 22.9
Soft Red Winter 5.66 5.9 5.6 – 6.2 6.1
White Winter 3.44 3.5 3.2 – 4.0 3.5

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Quarterly Grain Stocks
The following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report Friday and how the government’s estimates compared with analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Stockpiles on Dec. 1, 2018 (million bushels)
Friday’s USDA
Estimate Average Range Sept. 2018 Dec. 2017
Corn 11,952 12,117 11,940-12,699 2,140 12,567
Soybeans 3,736 3,687 3,161- 3,850 438 3,161
Wheat 1,999 1,952 1,873- 2,005 2,390 1,874

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Feb 8
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soy oil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound)
bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD===================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
18/19 17/18 16/17 : 18/19 17/18 16/17 : 18/19 17/18 16/17
Soybeans 910.0 438.0 302.0 :154.36 152.99 147.50 :360.99 339.99 349.31
Brazil na na : 79.50 76.18 63.14 :117.00 120.80 114.60
Argentina na na : 6.30 2.11 7.03 : 55.00 37.80 55.00
China na na : 0.10 0.13 0.11 : 15.90 15.20 13.64
Soyoil 2,095 1,990 1,711 : 11.32 10.49 11.25 : 57.07 55.16 53.72
Corn 1,735 2,140 2,293 :167.36 146.29 160.05 :1,099.61 1,075.611,122.41
China na na : 0.05 0.02 0.08 :257.33 259.07 263.61
Argentina na na : 29.00 21.00 25.99 : 46.00 32.00 41.00
S.Africa na na : 1.60 2.10 2.29 : 11.50 13.53 17.55
Cotton(a) 4.30 4.30 2.75 : 42.32 40.92 37.91 :118.45 123.69 106.66
All Wheat 1,010 1,099 1,181 :178.67 181.23 183.35 :734.75 763.18 756.51
China na na : 1.20 1.00 0.75 :131.43 134.33 133.27
EU 27 na na : 22.00 23.29 27.43 :137.60 151.26 145.37
Canada na na : 24.00 21.95 20.16 : 31.80 29.98 32.14
Argentina na na : 14.00 12.16 13.83 : 19.20 18.50 18.40
Australia na na : 10.00 13.85 22.64 : 17.00 21.30 31.82
Russia na na : 37.00 41.42 27.81 : 71.60 84.99 72.53
Ukraine na na : 16.50 17.78 18.11 : 25.00 26.98 26.79
Sorghum 65.0 35.0 33.0 : na na na
Barley 93.0 94.0 106.0 : na na na
Oats 36.0 41.0 50.0 : na na na : na na na
Rice 47.1 29.4 46.0 : 47.72 47.66 47.25 :495.87 495.07 490.94

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report Friday and how the
government’s estimates compared with analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street
Journal Survey.
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production
(Production in million bushels)
(Yield in bushels per acre)
(Harvested area in million acres)
Friday’s USDA
Estimate Average Range December
Corn Production 14,420.0 14,509 14,363-14,602 14,626
Corn Yield 176.4 177.6 175.9-178.5 178.9
Harvested Acres 81.7 81.7 81.4-81.8 81.8
Soybean Production 4,544.0 4,558 4,490-4,592 4,600
Soybean Yield 51.6 51.7 51.0-52.0 52.1
Harvested Acres 88.1 88.2 87.4-88.5 88.3
****
U.S. 2018-19 Stockpiles (million bushels)
Friday’s USDA
Estimate Average Range December
Corn 1,735.0 1,714 1,550-1,858 1,781
Soybeans 910.0 920 800-996 955
Wheat 1,010.0 993 950-1,031 974
****
World 2018-19 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range
Corn 309.8 307.5 305.0-311.6
Soybeans 106.7 113.9 109.0-122.6
Wheat 267.5 268.0 266.0-269.7
****
Brazil Production (million metric tons)
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range
Corn 94.5 93.3 91.5-95.5
Soybeans 117.0 116.3 112.2-119.0
Argentina Production (million metric tons)
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range
Corn 46.0 43.1 41.0-45.0
Soybeans 55.0 55.0 52.0-56.0

DJ FAO Food Price Index Rose in January
By David Hodari
LONDON–World food prices rose in January, climbing across most categories, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said Thursday.
The FAO Food Price Index was up 1.8% from its December level and some 2.2% below the level from the same month last year, the organization said.
Dairy prices rose 7.2%, while meat prices were roughly unchanged from their December price. Vegetable oils rose 4.3% on month after a protracted fall.
Cereal prices ticked up on month, and were 7.3% on year. Prices of most cereals, apart from rice, kept prices supported, with adverse weather conditions in South America a factor.
Sugar prices rose 2.4% on month, rallying with rising oil prices and a firmer Brazilian real.

Alerts History
• 11-Feb-2019 08:09:37 AM – EXPORTERS SELL 120,000 METRIC TONS OF SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT FOR DELIVERY TO EGYPT DURING 2018/2019 MARKETING YEAR -USDA
EXPORTERS SELL 120,000 METRIC TONS OF SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT FOR DELIVERY TO EGYPT DURING 2018/2019 MARKETING YEAR -USDA – Reuters News
11-Feb-2019 08:09:37 AM
Alerts History
• 11-Feb-2019 08:09:29 AM – EXPORTERS SELL 128,000 METRIC TONS OF HARD RED WINTER WHEAT FOR DELIVERY TO NIGERIA DURING THE 2018/2019 MARKETING YEAR- USDA
EXPORTERS SELL 128,000 METRIC TONS OF HARD RED WINTER WHEAT FOR DELIVERY TO NIGERIA DURING THE 2018/2019 MARKETING YEAR- USDA – Reuters News
11-Feb-2019 08:09:29 AM
Alerts History
• 11-Feb-2019 08:05:16 AM – EXPORTERS SELL 120,000 METRIC TONS OF SOYBEAN MEAL FOR DELIVERY TO ECUADOR, OF WHICH 60,000 MT IS FOR 2018/19 DELIVERY AND 60,000 MT IS FOR 2019/20 -USDA
EXPORTERS SELL 120,000 METRIC TONS OF SOYBEAN MEAL FOR DELIVERY TO ECUADOR, OF WHICH 60,000 MT IS FOR 2018/19 DELIVERY AND 60,000 MT IS FOR 2019/20 -USDA – Reuters News
11-Feb-2019 08:05:16 AM
Alerts History
• 11-Feb-2019 07:59:43 AM – RUSSIA’S AGRICULTURE MINISTRY, AFTER MEETING RUSSIAN GRAIN EXPORTERS, SAYS IT IS INITIATING CREATION OF NEW GRAIN EXPORTERS’ UNION
• 11-Feb-2019 08:00:57 AM – RUSSIA’S AGRICULTURE MINISTRY SAYS THE NEW GRAIN EXPORTERS’ UNION TO BE CREATED TOWARDS APRIL
• 11-Feb-2019 08:01:32 AM – RUSSIA’S AGRICULTURE MINISTRY SAYS DOES NOT PLAN TO IMPOSE ANY RESTRICTIONS ON GRAIN EXPORTS
• 11-Feb-2019 08:02:08 AM – RUSSIA’S AGRICULTURE MINISTRY SAYS KEEPS ITS FORECAST FOR RUSSIA’S 2018/19 GRAIN EXPORTS AT 42 MLN T
• 11-Feb-2019 08:02:38 AM – RUSSIA’S AGRICULTURE MINISTRY SAYS SEES RUSSIA’S 2018/19 WHEAT EXPORTS AT 37 MLN T
• 11-Feb-2019 08:03:12 AM – RUSSIA’S AGRICULTURE MINISTRY SAYS WILL START DISCUSSING 2019/20 GRAIN EXPORT PLANS WITH EXPORTERS IN APRIL
RUSSIA’S AGRICULTURE MINISTRY SAYS WILL START DISCUSSING 2019/20 GRAIN EXPORT PLANS WITH EXPORTERS IN APRIL – Reuters News
11-Feb-2019 08:03:12 AM

WHEAT
General Comments Winter Wheat markets were lower for the week last week. Chicago SRW prices held firm on Friday in response to news that Egypt had bought 120,000 tons of SRW. The other markets were lower in response to negative USDA reports. The Egypt news was another shot of positive demand news for a market that needs positive news. Attitudes on Wheat prices remain generally positive, but the market has struggled to move higher. USDA also announced the export sales report from the Christmas week last week, and the demand was higher than expected by traders. USDA showed higher ending stocks in its reports Friday, and stocks are projected to be just above one billion bushels. The quarterly stocks estimate was also above expectations at 1.999 billion bushels. World ending stocks were slightly lower. The Wheat seedings report was below trade projections and showed a decrease in planted area at 31.3 million acres for All Winter Wheat. The smaller planted area came because of very bad planting weather in the Great Plains and Midwest and low prices. The Fall season in both regions featured a lot of rain that hurt harvest and planting all season long. Price trends are starting to turn down on the daily charts, but weekly charts are still more sideways or up.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 501 and 489 March. Support is at 511, 509, and 508 March, with resistance at 524, 529, and 531 March. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 485, 477, and 462 March. Support is at 492, 488, and 485 March, with resistance at 507, 513, and 518 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 561, 549, and 534 March. Support is at 561, 557, and 553 March, and resistance is at 569, 573, and 576 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 08, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 547,663
: Positions :
: 72,943 117,333 168,435 94,797 156,287 173,047 58,603 509,221 500,657: 38,442 47,006
: Changes from: December 31, 2018 (Change in open interest: 5,449) :
: 4,409 -11,465 15,436 -11,453 -2,008 -1,624 2,539 6,768 4,502: -1,319 947
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.3 21.4 30.8 17.3 28.5 31.6 10.7 93.0 91.4: 7.0 8.6
: Total Traders: 399 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 103 118 146 94 103 46 25 333 313:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 08, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 323,796
: Positions :
: 64,970 78,107 71,287 89,531 135,617 67,020 17,162 292,808 302,174: 30,988 21,622
: Changes from: December 31, 2018 (Change in open interest: 8,208) :
: -367 -2,482 4,653 4,845 4,985 -2,766 538 6,364 7,694: 1,844 514
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.1 24.1 22.0 27.7 41.9 20.7 5.3 90.4 93.3: 9.6 6.7
: Total Traders: 275 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 70 52 73 83 92 33 14 217 205:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 8, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE 50 Metric Tons :
CFTC Code #00160F Open Interest is 12,500 :
: Positions :
: 7,592 11,210 1,500 0 0 2,642 0 0 276 500 100 :
: Changes from: December 31, 2018 :
: -1,335 -4,100 406 -400 -500 -3,593 0 0 -74 0 0 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 60.7 89.7 12.0 0.0 0.0 21.1 0.0 0.0 2.2 4.0 0.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 23 :
: 8 9 4 0 0 . 0 0 . . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 8, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 63,793 :
: Positions :
: 33,344 24,605 2,151 0 17 5,030 15,743 2,136 5,055 6,115 3,286 :
: Changes from: December 31, 2018 :
: -1,518 493 88 0 -23 -92 -537 95 302 -650 427 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 52.3 38.6 3.4 0.0 0.0 7.9 24.7 3.3 7.9 9.6 5.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 87 :
: 40 27 5 0 . 10 8 5 6 10 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower last week as the trade prepared for negative USDA reports. USDA released the reports on Friday and production was increased. Most of the production increase came from better than expected yields. US production was estimated at 224.2 million hundredweight, up 5.9 million from the last report. Demand on both the domestic and export side was also increased, but ending stocks were higher. Long Grain production was 164 million hundredweight, up about 285 from last year, and medium and short grain production was up slightly at 60 million hundredweight. World ending stocks levels were also increased, mostly on increased production in China. Data for the rest of the world was left mostly unchanged on the production side. Only slight modifications were made on the world demand side. The report was considered negative for futures prices. The trade will concentrate now on the weather. Delays in initial fieldwork are being reported in Texas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get chances for precipitation early this week. Temperatures should be mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1017 March. Support is at 1036, 1034, and 1031 March, with resistance at 1049, 1059, and 1067 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 8, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 7,829 :
: Positions :
: 5,552 2,905 218 0 0 0 3,444 0 809 57 176 :
: Changes from: December 31, 2018 :
: 402 -131 0 0 0 0 385 0 38 54 -13 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 70.9 37.1 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.0 0.0 10.3 0.7 2.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 48 :
: 15 9 . 0 0 0 12 0 11 . 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower on Friday and a little lower for the week as the market. Oats were also lower for the week. USDA issued it annual January reports and the quarterly stocks in all positions reports as well as the January and February supply and demand reports. US Corn production was a little lower than expected, and the quarterly stocks reports showed less supplies on hand than expected. However, the supply and demand estimates were considered negative for prices. USDA trimmed domestic demand in all areas. Reduced ethanol demand had been expected, but this demand was cut less than many in the trade had expected. USDA cut more demand from the feed and industrial categories than the energy category. It left export demand unchanged as no one really knows how the current trade wars that the US has launched will turn out. These changers helped keep US and world ending stocks a little higher than the trade had expected. Trade attention will now turn to Washington as it moves to resolve trade problems with China, Europe, and Japan, among others, and pushes for passage of the new North American trade agreement. South American weather is improving as some showers are reported now in central and northern Brazil. The Winter Corn crop is being planted as Soybeans get harvested, so the rains are very beneficial after an extended dry season. The price action in both Corn and Oats was weak, with Corn mounting a reversal day on Friday and Oats unable to show a rally of any kind. Chart trends are more sideways on the weekly charts. Increased buying is still expected on moves lower and current short-term patterns suggest that futures should not be able to move below 365 March.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 373, 371, and 368 March. Support is at 371, 370, and 367 March, and resistance is at 379, 381, and 382 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 274 and 270 March. Support is at 284, 280, and 278 March, and resistance is at 289, 294, and 296 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 08, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,923,679
: Positions :
: 257,280 232,826 473,891 534,290 857,621 438,443 137,981 1,703,904 1,702,318: 219,776 221,361
: Changes from: December 31, 2018 (Change in open interest: 42,923) :
: 18,527 -4,127 36,971 -18,174 1,339 -2,191 5,232 35,133 39,414: 7,790 3,509
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.4 12.1 24.6 27.8 44.6 22.8 7.2 88.6 88.5: 11.4 11.5
: Total Traders: 840 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 177 146 214 344 369 48 24 675 670:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 8, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 5,322 :
: Positions :
: 869 3,474 153 0 0 742 115 0 1,276 595 289 :
: Changes from: December 31, 2018 :
: -67 6 0 0 0 -72 0 0 22 15 13 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.3 65.3 2.9 0.0 0.0 13.9 2.2 0.0 24.0 11.2 5.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 29 :
: 8 9 . 0 0 6 . 0 6 4 5 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower last week, but a little higher on Friday. USDA issued a lot of reports on Friday that showed a mixed bag for futures prices. USDA cut production as expected, but did not cut ending stocks very much as its changes to demand projections were limited. It is waiting like everyone else for the resolution of the US-China trade dispute. However, it will get harder for the US to make ales to China or anyone else now. Brazil has reduced production, but Argentine production appears good, and both countries are now offering at prices that compete with the US for sales. On the other hand, producers in the Americas are not real interested in selling right now due to lower prices. The supplies for the world are there, but will need to be pried out of the hands of the sellers. Representatives from the US will travel to China this week for more meetings. There was apparently good progress made at the talks in Washington, and there are hopes for much more progress this week. However, the US has aid that the two presidents will not get together by the end of the month. Trends are sideways on the weekly charts for these markets, and the fundamentals of big supplies might keep rallies in check. Trends are turning down on the daily charts.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 891 and 875 March. Support is at 908, 906, and 900 March, and resistance is at 918, 922, and 924 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 305.00 and 299.00 March. Support is at 305.00, 304.00, and 301.00 March, and resistance is at 309.00, 312.00, and 314.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3110 and 3210 March. Support is at 3050, 3030, and 3010 March, with resistance at 3100, 3160, and 3190 March.

Alerts History
• 11-Feb-2019 06:32:05 AM – BRAZIL’S 2018/2019 SOY CROP ESTIMATE REVISED TO 112.5 MLN TNS VS 116.9 MLN TNS SEEN IN JANUARY – AGRURAL
• 11-Feb-2019 06:33:13 AM – BRAZIL’S 2018/19 SOYBEAN HARVEST REACHES 26 PCT OF THE PLANTED AREA VS 10 PCT A YEAR AGO AND 12 PCT OF 5-YR AVERAGE – AGRURAL
Brazil’s 2018/19 soy crop view slashed by over 4 mln T – AgRural – Reuters News
11-Feb-2019 06:46:02 AM
To view this story on Eikon, click here
SAO PAULO, Feb 11 (Reuters) – Brazil’s 2018/19 soybean crop estimate was cut by more than four million tonnes to 112.5 million tonnes, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, as it revised a forecast from January citing a drought in key producing states.
The consultancy also said Brazil’s 2018/19 soybean harvest is very advanced at 26 percent of the planted area compared with 10 percent a year ago and 12 percent of a 5-year average.
(Reporting by Ana Mano)
(( ana.mano@thomsonreuters.com ; Tel: +55-11-5644-7704; Mob: +55-119-4470-4529; Reuters Messaging: ana.mano.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net ))

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 08, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 779,971
: Positions :
: 63,165 114,841 188,698 292,604 343,949 178,259 37,542 722,727 685,030: 57,245 94,941
: Changes from: December 31, 2018 (Change in open interest: 12,383) :
: 6,361 -10,767 8,438 -4,040 14,392 715 -1,317 11,475 10,746: 908 1,637
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.1 14.7 24.2 37.5 44.1 22.9 4.8 92.7 87.8: 7.3 12.2
: Total Traders: 615 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 115 163 189 189 241 46 25 465 521:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 08, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 500,053
: Positions :
: 66,311 100,554 130,853 146,760 222,271 118,674 15,227 462,597 468,905: 37,456 31,148
: Changes from: December 31, 2018 (Change in open interest: 2,478) :
: 5,204 -9,593 4,050 -11,741 4,824 3,519 1,552 1,033 834: 1,446 1,644
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.3 20.1 26.2 29.3 44.4 23.7 3.0 92.5 93.8: 7.5 6.2
: Total Traders: 328 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 74 87 104 80 71 37 18 256 243:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 08, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 475,402
: Positions :
: 57,601 40,316 108,103 138,347 268,632 109,894 21,673 413,945 438,723: 61,457 36,679
: Changes from: December 31, 2018 (Change in open interest: 22,084) :
: 8,376 -11,507 12,754 -9,573 23,349 4,260 -511 15,818 24,084: 6,266 -2,001
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.1 8.5 22.7 29.1 56.5 23.1 4.6 87.1 92.3: 12.9 7.7
: Total Traders: 283 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 70 48 94 90 85 36 15 246 208:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was mixed. Speculators and domestic processors were the best buyers, and speculators and producers were the best sellers. Soybean Oil and Soybeans were higher and supported Canola. Wire reports indicate that the overall export demand is down this year. Chart trends are trying to turn up again. Palm Oil was lower and made new lows for the move on weaker demand data from the private sources. .
Overnight News: Amspec said that exports are 406,829 tons, down 11.2% from last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 480.00, 474.00, and 471.00 March, with resistance at 486.00, 489.00, and 490.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2340 April. Support is at 2300, 2270, and 2250 April, with resistance at 2340, 2350, and 2380 April.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 8, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 181,984 :
: Positions :
: 110,782 81,648 4,080 1,410 216 31,174 61,824 13,763 9,855 11,106 10,745 :
: Changes from: December 31, 2018 :
: 449 6,651 1,350 244 38 -19 -3,572 767 1,474 47 486 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 60.9 44.9 2.2 0.8 0.1 17.1 34.0 7.6 5.4 6.1 5.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 201 :
: 24 24 . . . 6 48 12 47 51 23 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Indonesian Palm-Oil Output, Supplies Fall — Market Talk
0236 GMT – Indonesia palm-oil stockpiles fell further in December on lower output. The Indonesian Palm Oil Association says end-of-year supplies was at 3.3 million tons, versus 3.9 million at the end of November, while production fell 500,000 tones to 3.9 million. Output tends to slow around year-end. However, the market opened lower this morning, with benchmark Bursa Malaysia futures down 0.5% at MYR2,306/ton. (lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Feb 8
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the week ended Feb. 3, 2019. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This week 2935.5 887.0 246.9 455.4 49.6 1061.1 394.4 412.8 7264.1
Week ago 3106.3 803.0 233.0 357.2 48.9 1094.0 391.5 405.2 7269.5
Year ago 2926.8 755.2 185.4 424.4 63.7 1399.4 247.5 131.8 6832.6
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 329.1 129.2 46.6 88.4 5.4 328.4 71.7 6.6 1052.9
Week Ago 424.6 105.0 58.0 80.8 5.3 383.1 89.6 6.1 1228.6
To Date 11660.6 2009.0 1245.1 2040.2 191.1 9994.2 1964.7 296.8 31916.0
Year Ago 9550.1 2139.5 1229.6 1724.9 243.5 10512.6 1539.7 253.9 29781.2
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 271.4 41.2 0.6 95.8 0.0 137.4 32.8 24.1 674.7
Week Ago 304.6 23.2 0.1 58.5 2.5 178.7 35.8 18.4 647.6
To Date 11332.4 2049.4 254.9 1239.1 70.7 5661.0 1056.9 688.2 27512.0
Year Ago 9272.8 2470.9 122.8 887.9 144.4 6154.1 996.0 473.8 24954.2
EXPORTS
This Week 350.6 23.2 12.7 0.2 1.1 207.5 30.6 0.0 685.2
Week Ago 378.3 13.8 36.0 0.1 7.9 268.5 37.0 0.0 744.8
To Date 9604.8 1729.9 838.2 1202.2 134.4 5236.6 1068.8 811.8 24320.6
Year Ago 8102.5 2021.2 849.9 925.3 192.5 5615.3 1040.6 386.4 22264.0
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 54.6 2.5 5.0 21.1 1.5 167.7 4.6 24.5 305.9
Week Ago 55.3 2.0 5.1 16.5 0.9 177.3 4.7 15.3 296.9
To Date 2218.9 187.0 153.5 580.2 29.5 4821.2 114.1 631.4 10234.9
Year Ago 2525.6 423.7 130.9 637.7 29.1 4668.9 119.3 331.2 10429.0
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canary seed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysia’s January Palm Oil Exports 1.68M Tons; Up 21% -MPOB
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 21% on month at 1.68 million metric tons in January, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the January crop data and revised numbers for December, issued by MPOB:
January December Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,737,498 1,808,038 Dn 3.9%
Palm Oil Exports 1,676,442 1,383,307 Up 21.19%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 78,590 61,228 Up 28.36%
Palm Oil Imports 81,084 108,621 Dn 25.35%
Closing Stocks 3,001,169 3,216,476 Dn 6.69%
Crude Palm Oil 1,869,095 1,940,680 Dn 3.69%
Processed Palm Oil 1,132,074 1,275,796 Dn 11.27%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for big precipitation off and on all week, then a mostly dry weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal this week and mostly below normal this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February 60 March 158 March 86 March 32 March Price
March 58 March 85 March 31 March
April 50 May 75 May 22 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
February 52 March
March 55 March -13 March
April 52 May -17 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 8
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 467.90 up 0.10
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 498.30 dn 0.90
2 Can 485.30 dn 0.90
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 513.30 dn 0.90
2 Can 500.30 dn 0.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 11
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 562.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 570.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 582.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 582.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 567.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 575.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 587.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 587.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 550.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 440.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 2,150 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 176.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0690)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 1
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 119,818 lots, or 4.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 3,285 3,296 3,277 3,296 3,288 3,287 -1 106 1,966
May-19 3,478 3,534 3,443 3,530 3,440 3,495 55 110,598 129,936
Jul-19 – – – 3,504 3,449 3,504 55 0 4
Sep-19 3,473 3,549 3,471 3,545 3,461 3,508 47 7,066 21,866
Nov-19 – – – 3,450 3,404 3,450 46 0 14
Jan-20 3,439 3,453 3,423 3,449 3,428 3,439 11 2,048 7,198
Corn
Turnover: 309,580 lots, or 5.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 1,838 1,847 1,830 1,844 1,831 1,833 2 3,744 21,390
May-19 1,874 1,875 1,859 1,865 1,867 1,864 -3 236,362 992,240
Jul-19 1,896 1,897 1,885 1,891 1,893 1,891 -2 12,058 16,492
Sep-19 1,898 1,900 1,888 1,897 1,897 1,894 -3 54,746 352,292
Nov-19 1,919 1,920 1,909 1,917 1,915 1,913 -2 408 1,072
Jan-20 1,926 1,930 1,919 1,927 1,920 1,923 3 2,262 15,972
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,243,744 lots, or 32.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 2,623 2,643 2,596 2,634 2,629 2,631 2 76,880 58,320
May-19 2,576 2,610 2,559 2,602 2,598 2,589 -9 943,738 1,703,524
Jul-19 2,600 2,630 2,581 2,626 2,615 2,605 -10 71,440 70,774
Aug-19 2,616 2,644 2,616 2,644 2,642 2,630 -12 4 228
Sep-19 2,634 2,673 2,625 2,666 2,651 2,652 1 147,036 518,916
Nov-19 2,645 2,685 2,643 2,681 2,667 2,673 6 710 2,882
Dec-19 2,721 2,721 2,696 2,709 2,667 2,716 49 66 246
Jan-20 2,701 2,724 2,679 2,718 2,710 2,706 -4 3,870 44,724
Palm Oil
Turnover: 230,772 lots, or 11.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-19 4,600 4,600 4,600 4,600 4,560 4,600 40 20 0
Mar-19 – – – 4,756 4,756 4,756 0 0 4
Apr-19 – – – 4,802 4,802 4,802 0 0 20
May-19 4,802 4,828 4,762 4,772 4,772 4,784 12 215,478 441,196
Jun-19 – – – 4,846 4,846 4,846 0 0 62
Jul-19 – – – 4,866 4,866 4,866 0 0 26
Aug-19 – – – 4,810 4,810 4,810 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,850 4,872 4,812 4,818 4,820 4,830 10 14,272 69,732
Oct-19 4,910 4,910 4,910 4,910 4,896 4,910 14 2 24
Nov-19 4,878 4,878 4,870 4,870 4,838 4,876 38 20 18
Dec-19 4,954 4,954 4,918 4,918 4,960 4,936 -24 20 40
Jan-20 4,888 4,914 4,842 4,858 4,862 4,860 -2 960 1,366
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 306,214 lots, or 17.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 5,502 5,502 5,502 5,502 5,380 5,502 122 2 150
May-19 5,778 5,804 5,722 5,746 5,726 5,752 26 262,112 715,720
Jul-19 – – – 5,786 5,786 5,786 0 0 16
Aug-19 – – – 5,684 5,660 5,684 24 0 2
Sep-19 5,850 5,872 5,804 5,828 5,800 5,830 30 41,200 187,934
Nov-19 5,912 5,912 5,912 5,912 5,860 5,912 52 2 4
Dec-19 – – – 5,868 5,868 5,868 0 0 10
Jan-20 5,924 5,972 5,898 5,922 5,898 5,920 22 2,898 9,924
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.