Stewart-Peterson Market Commentary

Closing Commentary - June 18, 2018

Top Farmer Midday Update 6-18-18

CORN: Corn futures are lower as prices continue to drift in a bearish pattern into the growing season. Managed money is now short corn after heavier-than-expected long liquidation last week. Jul corn is down 3-1/4 cents to 3.58 after putting in a new contract low at 3.54 ahead of the expiration of July options at the end of the week and First Notice Day for the futures contract next week. Dec is down 3-3/4 cents to 3.79-1/4 while around the 3.80 support area. That contract fell to 3.75-1/2 this morning. This morning’s USDA Weekly Export Inspections were 1,668,835 tons (65.7 mil bu) vs 1,410,564 tons (55.5 mil bu) the previous week. We’ll get an updated Planted Acreage and Quarterly Stock reports from the USDA at the end of the month - with many in the trade curious about the accuracy of the new crop U.S., world S/D’s being in decline? Meanwhile, wet weather and a forecast for more normalcy is weighing on sentiment.

SOYBEANS: Soybean futures have turned higher after chopping around all morning now that the highly anticipated trade war has begun. Prices have become technically oversold and may have the bearish news, between trade wars and weather, priced in, thus the firmness so far today. Weather remains conducive with high ratings again expected in row crops this afternoon. Jul beans are up 5-1/4 cents to 9.10-3/4 after dropping below $9 per bushel for the first time to 8.97-1/4 now that managed money is officially short beans. Nov beans are now up 1-1/2 cents to 9.32. Weekly Export Inspections were 818,396 tons (30 mil bu) vs 675,621 tons (24.8 mil bu) the previous week.

WHEAT: Wheat futures are still lower to 4.92 in the Jul CBOT contract on losses of 7-1/2 cents. Jul KC wheat is down 12 to 5.07-3/4. Weekly Export Inspections were down from a week ago with 372,843 tons (13.7 mil bu) reported vs 419,589 tons (15.4 mil bu) the previous week. Russia is the only real hot spot for the wheat bulls with widespread U.S. moisture hitting at least some isolated areas in U.S. wheat country, though harvest could be slowed by the rains.

CATTLE: Cattle futures are mixed after starting the day higher on follow-through from a bullish move and close on Friday. Jun cattle are down 0.350 to 108.100 while trading an ‘inside day’. Aug is unchanged at 104.775; and, Aug feeders are up 0.100 to 148.100.

HOGS: Hog futures are higher led by a 1.250 gain in the nearby Jul contract to 82.975, where a ceiling of resistance is forming at the daily highs of the past four sessions. Aug hogs are up 0.525 to 78.775 and Oct is up 0.350 to 64.625 with both contracts an ‘inside day’, respectively.

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